Leprosy Mailing List –March 7, 2021
Ref.: (LML) Number of people requiring post-exposure prophylaxis to end leprosy: A modeling study
From: Ben Naafs and Pieter Schreuder, the Netherlands
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Dear colleagues,
In recent years, in LML, the duration of treatment and the risks of endo-and exogenic reinfections was discussed regularly. Joël Almeida had convincing arguments about the length of treatment of lepromatous patients and the "control" of a leprosy endemic. The recent paper of Robert Gelber should be another eye opener. Another topic discussed in LML was PEP and PREP. Opinions differed on these too.
Recently, in PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, in an article by researchers from the NLR, Amsterdam and the Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, the Netherlands, a modelling study was presented calculating the number of people requiring post-exposure prophylaxis to end leprosy.
Ben Naafs
Pieter AM Schreuder
Number of people requiring post-exposure prophylaxis to end leprosy: A modeling study https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0009146
Author summary
Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease affecting the skin and peripheral nerves. Despite efforts to end leprosy, the number of new leprosy cases remains stable at around 210,000. To interrupt transmission and reduce this number significantly, new strategies such as the provision of (prophylactic) treatment need to be implemented. This should be done by targeting those most at risk of developing leprosy, the contacts of new leprosy patients.
Mathematical modelling can be applied to predict the impact of preventive treatment with post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) on the incidence and the number of contacts requiring PEP at global and national level. In this study, the cumulative number of individuals requiring PEP was estimated at 40.2 million globally to reduce the incidence by 90% in 22 years. This number provides a more realistic reflection of the size of the leprosy problem worldwide. The estimates at national level are highly relevant to all countries where leprosy has been reported as it can support the policymakers and health program makers to design their elimination strategies. It also provides insight into the investment that is required to end leprosy globally and nationally.
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LML-S Deepak, B Naafs, S Noto and P Schreuder
LML blog link: http://leprosymailinglist.blogspot.it/
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